4.5, 4.6, 4.25, 4.26, 4.28

4.5
The questions that are used to evaluate the models are how well do the modelers understand the underlying science or theory of the system being studied? how well understood are the relevant properties of the materials involved? How accurate and complete are the data? What are the assumptions and simplifications of reality of this model? and how closely do the results or predictions of the model correspond with the results from physical experiments or real experience?

4.6
Both the crash analysis models and the climate models use a grid which is a simplification, and because of grid limitations small storms, clouds, and other small phenomena that fall between the grid points are not accurately represented. Car Crash models also do not represent the continuous aspect of time, and instead depict it in steps.

4.25
An argument in this man's defense is that his judgement, having been in the field with 25 years of experience, would be better than the computers judgement. He knows what is safe with burns, and if he believes that the computer model was not good and his was better than he should stick to his gut. It is also shown that he knows what a safe burn would be because there were no complications with the fire. An argument from the boss's side is that the employee should have consulted him first, and that the computer should be trusted because it does not include the factor of human error and so would not make a mistake. The man could have made a simple mistake when calculating the burn area and this could have ended up in a massive fire.

4.26
A) If the company has only tested it with a computer and has not physically tested the product i would award the plaintiff more money because there could have been a glitch in the program and physical tests will accurately show what will happen. The computer may not pick up other effects the physical test would. Therefore my decision would be affected by the company's testing policy, because to ensure safety both testing methods should have been used.
B) If the injury rate is the same for all three of the companies i would then not make my decision based on the testing methods at all. This shows that the type of testing does not affect the injury rate, and so this would not come into play in my decision as all of the companies are the same. However, if the injury rate is just high, and it could be shown that the injury rate could have been reduced but wasn't, that would affect the amount of the money I would award the plaintiff. It would show negligence on the company's side to not make sure safety was a top concern and fix problems.

4.28
1) I believe that this model would be accurate because it is very mathematical, and it would be a simple formula to see how much income tax would effect the revenue.
2) This would be only fairly reliable, depending on how consistent the moon moves around the earth. If it moves the same orbit around the earth every year than to measure it 30 years from now would still work, assuming that the orbit does not change. If it is shown that the moon orbit hasn't changed in more than 30 years then it could be assumed that the results would be accurate.
3) This would not be very reliable because the amount needed is influenced by people greatly, and there may be technological developments that change the need for optical fiber. Therefore the use of it and the need for it is hard to be predicted.
4) This also would not be very accurate because this could change a year from now based on the consumption of fossil fuels, and the amount could fluctuate very easily. It is not known how much fossil fuels we will continue to burn, and even if 10 years from now we will still be using nonrenewable resources, so predicting the effect 50 years from now would most likely not be accurate or reliable.
5) This would be fairly accurate because there are less variables than the other predictions. If the wind conditions are known, it should be easy to see how, with the effect of the wind and the water, the boat would be able to go. It is assumed that the speed would change based on the water conditions, but it should be fairly accurate for whatever condition they are testing for.